Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.342931 0.393980 0.449435 0.514072 0.587264 0.667491 0.762011
2025-07-20 0.272394 0.340401 0.420066 0.519983 0.641632 0.784601 0.965012
2025-07-27 0.225010 0.303951 0.403071 0.535963 0.708679 0.924676 1.214280
2025-08-03 0.188577 0.274325 0.389296 0.553382 0.779961 1.079965 1.505060
2025-08-10 0.148902 0.233023 0.353305 0.535716 0.802717 1.176021 1.733372
2025-08-17 0.116043 0.195064 0.315347 0.508763 0.808095 1.248761 1.939864
2025-08-24 0.094742 0.170458 0.292730 0.500432 0.838951 1.361572 2.218961
2025-08-31 0.077691 0.149305 0.271731 0.490901 0.866089 1.471844 2.508394
2025-09-07 0.067298 0.137539 0.264142 0.502016 0.927926 1.644113 2.917162
2025-09-14 0.054666 0.118993 0.241353 0.482781 0.934993 1.726889 3.188670
2025-09-21 0.045916 0.106120 0.226620 0.475550 0.961834 1.845999 3.535879
2025-09-28 0.038355 0.094032 0.211165 0.464191 0.978957 1.949289 3.866527
2025-10-05 0.034009 0.088280 0.208073 0.478140 1.049208 2.163023 4.433690
2025-10-12 0.029146 0.080226 0.198636 0.477409 1.090274 2.327180 4.928708
2025-10-19 0.025755 0.074959 0.194430 0.487397 1.155313 2.546835 5.559289
2025-10-26 0.022966 0.070567 0.191442 0.499688 1.227289 2.789645 6.265685
2025-11-02 0.018994 0.061931 0.176410 0.480979 1.227273 2.882409 6.673734
2025-11-09 0.015388 0.053317 0.159593 0.454721 1.205574 2.925540 6.981385
2025-11-16 0.013083 0.047963 0.150284 0.445834 1.223997 3.059636 7.503369
2025-11-23 0.011120 0.043123 0.141351 0.436259 1.239185 3.188074 8.027426
2025-11-30 0.010015 0.040841 0.139356 0.445445 1.303816 3.440192 8.864494
2025-12-07 0.008341 0.036022 0.128626 0.427676 1.294551 3.513306 9.287902
2025-12-14 0.007188 0.032757 0.122022 0.420803 1.313779 3.658840 9.902000